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The new wave of Covid-19 could be the worst with record hospitalizations soon. Restrctions will multiply and will weigh on 4Q GDP.

The first estimate of U.S. 3Q growth marked history with GDP jumping by 33.1% QoQ annualized, following a record 31.4% decline in 2Q. Supported by this sharp rebound, the level of economic activity is now only 3.5% below the pre-crisis level (4Q 2019). However, the positive momentum should reverse as soon as 4Q amid coronavirus resurgence.

Before all, it’s important to highlight that the U.S. economic recovery has clearly lost momentum since August in a context where the federal government’s CARES Act programs for the most part expired at the end of July.